In July 2025, the United States, under President Donald Trump, finalized a trade agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the U.S., down from a threatened 30%. This agreement, while averting a full-scale trade war, has significant implications for Greece, a country with a trade surplus with the U.S. valued at €268.19 million in 2024. Below is an analysis of the direct and indirect effects of these tariffs on Greece’s economy, focusing on key sectors and broader economic dynamics, based on recent reports and economic assessments.
Direct Effects on Greek Exports
1. Increased Costs for Key Agricultural Exports
Greece’s exports to the U.S., which reached €2.411 billion in 2024, account for approximately 4.5% of its total exports, making the U.S. its fifth-largest export market. The 15% tariff significantly raises the cost of Greek goods in the U.S., particularly affecting agricultural and food products, which constitute 31% of Greece’s export basket to the U.S. Key products impacted include:
- Feta Cheese: Greece produced 140,000 tonnes of feta in 2024, worth €800 million, with 8% exported to the U.S., where export volumes doubled over the past four years. The 15% tariff, compared to a previous exemption in 2019, is expected to halve these exports, as U.S. consumers may opt for cheaper alternatives. Greek dairies, such as the Kalavrita cooperative, face challenges redirecting these quantities to other markets.
- Olive Oil and Table Olives: Table olives alone represent €212 million of Greece’s U.S. exports. The tariffs make these products less competitive, threatening local producers who rely on the U.S. market, which has grown at an average annual rate of 20.4% from 2020 to 2024.
- Canned Peaches: Greece is the world’s largest exporter of tinned peaches, with 20% of its production going to the U.S. The tariffs, combined with an existing 17% levy, could raise the total duty to 32%, severely denting demand and affecting over 20,000 families in Central Macedonia.
- Wine: Although not among Greece’s top 10 exports, wine exports to the U.S. were valued at €20 million in 2024. The tariffs threaten this promising market, where Greek wines command high prices.
Greek companies and U.S. distributors may attempt to absorb some costs, but the price increases are expected to reduce competitiveness, leading to an estimated 1.7% reduction in total Greek exports for every 10% tariff increase, according to the National Bank of Greece.
2. Industrial Goods and Other Exports
The tariffs also impact industrial exports like cement and aluminum, which face higher barriers in the U.S. market. Aluminum, in particular, is subject to a 50% tariff, significantly affecting producers. While exemptions exist for certain products like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, the lack of clarity on other goods creates uncertainty for Greek exporters.
Indirect Effects on Greece’s Economy
1. Ripple Effects Through EU Trade Partners
Greece’s economy is closely tied to the EU, with 55.3% of its merchandise exports (€25.4 billion in Jan–Nov 2024) going to EU member states. The U.S. tariffs, particularly on major economies like Germany, France, and Italy, could reduce demand for Greek goods within the EU. For instance, Greek intermediate goods used in European value chains for products exported to the U.S. may see reduced demand, leading to “collateral losses,” as noted by Alkiviadis Kalampokis of the Greek Exporters’ Association (SEVE). A National Bank of Greece study estimates that a 10% tariff increase on EU exports could lower Greece’s GDP by 0.4% by the end of 2026, with a 15% tariff potentially exacerbating this impact.
2. Economic Slowdown in the Eurozone
The European Central Bank and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras project a 0.3–0.4% reduction in Eurozone GDP growth due to the tariffs. As 65% of Greek exports go to EU countries, a slowdown in these economies could reduce consumer purchasing power, indirectly affecting Greek exports. This is particularly concerning for Greece, which relies on EU financial support, as economic strain on key contributors like Germany could limit these funds.
3. Tourism and Currency Fluctuations
Greece’s tourism industry, a key economic driver, could face indirect effects if a weaker euro—potentially influenced by European Central Bank policies—makes European goods more competitive globally but reduces purchasing power in the EU. A slowdown in European economies might also dampen demand for Greek tourism, further impacting growth.
Greek Government and Economic Response
Greek officials, including Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, have emphasized a unified EU response to the tariffs, advocating for free trade and cautioning against protectionism. Mitsotakis has stated that Greece’s economy is prepared to withstand these challenges, with fiscal prudence as a priority. The government is studying the EU-U.S. trade agreement to protect iconic products like feta, olive oil, and wine, which risk losing competitiveness. Ioannis Bratakos of the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry has called for a reassessment of Greece’s economic model to enhance resilience, while Vassilis Korkidis of the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce views the 15% tariff as a manageable compromise that restores balance to U.S.-EU trade.
Potential Opportunities and Mitigation Strategies
Despite the challenges, the trade agreement offers some opportunities. The EU’s commitment to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy, including LNG, could benefit Greece’s logistics and shipbuilding sectors, particularly through the port of Piraeus, a major trade hub. Greek exporters are exploring diversification to markets like Mercosur countries, Mexico, and India, though this requires time and EU trade agreements. The 90-day pause on some tariffs provides a window for negotiations to secure exemptions, as seen during Trump’s first term when Greek olive oil and table olives were excluded.
Conclusion
The Trump tariffs pose a dual challenge for Greece: direct impacts on key exports like feta, olive oil, and canned peaches, and indirect effects through a potential Eurozone slowdown. While the direct economic hit is expected to be limited due to Greece’s relatively low export reliance on the U.S., the ripple effects on EU trade partners could reduce demand for Greek goods and services. The Greek government’s focus on a unified EU response and economic resilience, combined with opportunities in energy cooperation and market diversification, will be critical to mitigating these impacts. However, the tariffs underscore the need for Greece to strengthen its export competitiveness and adapt to a shifting global trade landscape.
Sources: The National Herald, GreekReporter.com, The Independent, eKathimerini.com, tovima.com, Reuters, Euronews REDUCEweb:2⁊